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I've decided that this year, I'm not going to start off writing a preview of each game, only to get bored with it/forget about it by midseason. I'm only going to do this season preview, and maybe a review at the end of the year.
This is an interesting season for the Tide for a number of reasons. Focus has finally shifted away from Saban and toward the all-everything freshman class. That same freshman class may very well determine how the season goes.
I keep coming back to the fact that this team has a LOT of question marks going into the first game. A question mark is not inherently a bad thing; it just means that we don't know exactly what to expect. Freshman X could end up being better than advertised and play like a veteran from the first snap....or he could end up making typical freshman mistakes in a season of mediocrity. Reality will probably be somewhere in the middle.
I am as pumped up and excited about this season as any I can remember, but I must also be realistic. This is only year two of the rebuilding process, and the fans must remember that we are not there yet. I think the majority of fans will understand that (provided we at least show improvement from last year and don't lose to a team like La-Monroe again), but I am already dreading listening to the unrealistic idiots complaining about Saban's coaching job after we lose to a clearly better team. The fact of the matter is that, on paper, we are not even close to being the most talented team in the SEC. If the next two recruiting classes are as good as this one was (on paper), then the story will be different. Saban can out-coach a lot of people, and the team can be better prepared than a lot of teams, but that is not always enough to overcome a team with far superior talent.
I am trying to not get too excited about any specific players from the freshman class until they give me reason to get excited. Too many great high-school players end up being mediocre or worse in college, and unfortunately that is bound to be the case for at least some of this year's crop. We must also remember that the fact that so many freshman are going to play is not necessarily because they are so good; it is also an indication of the lack of depth ahead of them.
All indications at this point look to Alabama being favored in 7 games (3 non-conference home games, Arkansas, Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Miss. St.) All of these are at home except Arkansas. As it stands right now, we would appear to be underdogs against Clemson, Georgia, Tennessee, LSU, and Auburn.
Assuming we take care of business and win the 7 games in which we are favored (which is NEVER a gimme with Alabama, but will hopefully start becoming the norm), that leaves the 5 underdog games. If we pull one upset, that would make us 8-4; two would make us 9-3. I just can't see us doing any better than that, especially since all are on the road (or neutral site) except Auburn.
I am making my official prediction 8-4, with absolutely no idea which one of the five upsets we will pull off. Of course, if that upset happens to be Clemson, then I'll probably want to revise my prediction to 12-0 next week. I'd be content with 8-4, very happy with 9-3, and obviously ecstatic with 10-2 or better. 8-4 means (more than likely) that we actually win an SEC game in November. 8-4 would be a two game improvement from last year. That would put us on track for 10-2 next year, then 12-0 that next year. :)