I've decided that this year, I'm not going to start off writing a preview of each game, only to get bored with it/forget about it by midseason. I'm only going to do this season preview, and maybe a review at the end of the year.
This is an interesting season for the Tide for a number of reasons. Focus has finally shifted away from Saban and toward the all-everything freshman class. That same freshman class may very well determine how the season goes.
I keep coming back to the fact that this team has a LOT of question marks going into the first game. A question mark is not inherently a bad thing; it just means that we don't know exactly what to expect. Freshman X could end up being better than advertised and play like a veteran from the first snap....or he could end up making typical freshman mistakes in a season of mediocrity. Reality will probably be somewhere in the middle.
I am as pumped up and excited about this season as any I can remember, but I must also be realistic. This is only year two of the rebuilding process, and the fans must remember that we are not there yet. I think the majority of fans will understand that (provided we at least show improvement from last year and don't lose to a team like La-Monroe again), but I am already dreading listening to the unrealistic idiots complaining about Saban's coaching job after we lose to a clearly better team. The fact of the matter is that, on paper, we are not even close to being the most talented team in the SEC. If the next two recruiting classes are as good as this one was (on paper), then the story will be different. Saban can out-coach a lot of people, and the team can be better prepared than a lot of teams, but that is not always enough to overcome a team with far superior talent.
I am trying to not get too excited about any specific players from the freshman class until they give me reason to get excited. Too many great high-school players end up being mediocre or worse in college, and unfortunately that is bound to be the case for at least some of this year's crop. We must also remember that the fact that so many freshman are going to play is not necessarily because they are so good; it is also an indication of the lack of depth ahead of them.
All indications at this point look to Alabama being favored in 7 games (3 non-conference home games, Arkansas, Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Miss. St.) All of these are at home except Arkansas. As it stands right now, we would appear to be underdogs against Clemson, Georgia, Tennessee, LSU, and Auburn.
Assuming we take care of business and win the 7 games in which we are favored (which is NEVER a gimme with Alabama, but will hopefully start becoming the norm), that leaves the 5 underdog games. If we pull one upset, that would make us 8-4; two would make us 9-3. I just can't see us doing any better than that, especially since all are on the road (or neutral site) except Auburn.
I am making my official prediction 8-4, with absolutely no idea which one of the five upsets we will pull off. Of course, if that upset happens to be Clemson, then I'll probably want to revise my prediction to 12-0 next week. I'd be content with 8-4, very happy with 9-3, and obviously ecstatic with 10-2 or better. 8-4 means (more than likely) that we actually win an SEC game in November. 8-4 would be a two game improvement from last year. That would put us on track for 10-2 next year, then 12-0 that next year. :)
Honestly, I think I'll be glad when this game is over, win or lose. I'm tired of hearing about it.
Bottom line: on paper, LSU wins, and probably wins big. Our defensive backs will be so worried about coming up to stop the run that they'll give up plenty of passes, and unlike Tennessee, LSU probably won't drop them. Everything came so easily for us in the last game that we might not know what to do when a team does things like, I dunno, cover DJ Hall or complete wide-open passes.
To Bama's advantage, the pressure is ALL on LSU. They are favored, they have the coach with a chip on his shoulder about our coach, and they had all the hype about being the most talented team in the country. We will have the home crowd (provided they don't get taken out of the game early) and the view by most that winning this game would just be gravy on an already over-achieving season (assuming we can beat State and La-Monroe, and at least have a close game with Auburn). LSU has everything to lose and we have everything to gain.
I would be ecstatic but not shocked if we were to pull off this win, but I am not expecting it. Hopefully, I'm wrong.
I said in the preseason that I wanted to win this game more than any other this year, and I said that regardless of how the season went, we would win this game. Of course, I'm usually wrong about these things, but it was nice to be right for once.
There's not much to say. We looked great; Tennessee did not. My prediction for the game, had I written it, would have projected a close win. I don't think anyone saw a blowout coming. Everything went our way, and it really seemed like the players quit on Fulmer. They just weren't trying there toward the end.
I just hope we don't expect all the breaks to go our way against LSU...
Okay, so technically this is a review that is several weeks late rather than a preview. Had I written this before the game, I would have said that we should win a close game. I think we are a better team than Ole Miss, but somehow they seem to always play us close. I'm not sure if Orgeron is a lousy recruiter, which would mean he's actually doing well with the players he has, or just a lousy coach, which means he has good talent but can't get them to play well together. But despite that, they play us close, and this game was no different.
I wish the game had ended differently. Not because I think the officials blew the call or the reversal or whatever has been hashed out to death, but because it would be nice to have avoided all of that. It would have been great if Mitchell had knocked that pass down. It would have been okay if they had let the play stand and Orgeron did something stupid like go for the win and not get it. I would have been okay with the play standing, Ole Miss sending it to OT, and then us winning in OT. Any of those scenarios would be better than what happened.
I refuse to argue about the final play. The SEC office has readily admitted blown calls plenty of times before, and they have said repeatedly that they were right to overturn the call. The "indisputable" part of "indisputable evidence" needed to overturn a call still makes it subjective, and Ole Miss and Alabama fans will never see eye to eye on that play. Through my crimson-colored glasses, there is no way you can say he was forced out of bounds, and no replay showed Alabama touching the ball first...you either couldn't tell or Ole Miss touched it first. As to whether or not that is enough to overturn a call, that's the officials call, not mine.
If I were an Ole Miss fan, I'm sure I would have been upset. What I don't like is Orgeron's implying that we got preferential treatment because we're Alabama or because we have Saban. That's ridiculous. I even less liked the Ole Miss AD or president (I can't remember which) who basically said he couldn't blame the fans for throwing stuff. That's inexcusable. It was inexcusable when our fans did it against Georgia, and it's inexcusable when they did it against us. But when it happened in Tuscaloosa, Saban immediately condemned it. Mal Moore went the next week to speak personally to the frat rats involved.
Anyhow, I'm glad we won the game. We played well at times, and we played badly at times. Just like usual.
This is actually a pretty important game for us. The team needs some confidence after not playing well the last two games. The opponent is no Western Carolina, but it's also no Georgia or Florida State. Houston could certainly beat us, but I think we would have to help them.
I think the defense has another pretty good outing and offense gets at least a little bit back on track. Bama wins 45-17.
I'll be honest...in the preseason, I didn't think there was much hope for winning this game. You can even read that below. We have looked much better than I thought we would, and Florida State has looked much worse than I thought they would.
So what does this mean for the game tomorrow?
The atmosphere should be great for fans of both teams...it's shaping up to be almost a bowl game feel. They are calling this a historic game, because of the storied history of the two schools and also the two coaches.
I really think we're going to win this game. Florida State's offense has not looked great all year, and while our defense has shown its weaknesses pretty clearly, I think they can step it up against FSU. This is not exactly Arkansas or Georgia they have to stop. Terry Grant alone has more rushing yards this season than all of FSU's backs combined. Plus, Bama's defense may be getting Mustin back and getting Motley for the first time this season.
On the other side, FSU's defense is supposed to be really good and hard hitting, but I can't overlook the fact that UAB put up 24 points on them. Assuming we can put up at least that many ourselves, I think it will be enough to win.
Bama wins, oh I dunno, 24-14.
Okay, so I forgot to actually write this last week. But maybe it's good that I didn't, because I really don't like predicting losses. I did think about what to write, and what I was going to say was that Georgia is probably a more talented team than we are, and I would love to think that the home crowd and the momentum from last week could make us overcome that, but as much as I wanted that to happen, it probably wouldn't.
As poorly as we played for most of the game, we should be happy that it ended up being close.
Here's what we know: McFadden and Jones are supposed to be the best backs in the same backfield ever (or perhaps since Williams & Brown at Auburn). In two games, Alabama has given up a TOTAL of 133 yards rushing, which is a pretty good feat against any two teams. Clearly something has to give.
I think we'll win this game for two reasons. First, although I'm not going to pretend Grant is as good as McFadden, we have a pretty good rushing game ourselves. And we at least have the potential to have a MUCH better passing game than Arkansas. No one respects Arkansas's ability to pass, and hopefully they won't be able to prove anyone wrong. Hopefully, we can put some long drives together and keep the ball out of McFadden's hands.
Second, I think our defense is a lot better than Arkansas's. I know we haven't faced a top offense yet, but I don't think we'll let Arkansas go too crazy. I think we'll slow their running game down enough that we can outscore them.
Bama wins 28-21.
I'm really tired of everyone talking about how they're "scared" about this game. I don't mean that in a cocky, "It's Vandy so we're going to beat them" kind of way...it's just that we're not in a position to take ANY SEC opponent for granted (see last year's Mississippi State game), so we should be concerned about every game.
Most everyone seems to think this will be a close game, but that the Tide will win. I honestly don't think it will be that close. Yes, they have a dangerous offense, but so do we (at least in theory and against crappy I-AA teams). And I know everyone is down on our defense this year, but I still have to think that our defense is better than Vandy's. They gave up 17 points and 300 something yards to Richmond, after all.
So as weird as it sounds in regards to Vandy and Alabama, I'm expecting a lot of offense. Bama wins 35-14.
There isn't much to say about this game. Yes, everyone is excited to see what the team will look like under Nick Saban, but I don't think we'll find out much from this game. It should not be close, and hopefully we won't even have to play the starters much in the second half. We still won't know much about the team until next week.
Here's hoping this is the beginning of Alabama easily putting away opponents that it should easily put away.
Bama wins 45-10.
Once again, since everyone else's preseason predictions are always wrong, I have no problem putting mine out here knowing that they will also be wrong.
I have spent a lot of time the last few weeks trying to decide what my prediction for the season will be.
I'm predicting a season of 8-4. I hope I'm wrong and we end up with 9 wins. Let's face it, some crazy fans will be disappointed if we don't win 10 or 11, but that's just not realistic for this year. We just don't have the players at some positions. But I think 8 wins is very doable. One improvement I definitely hope to see over the last few years is for us to easily win the games that are supposed to be easy wins. The past few years, we've made even the easy wins look hard (like Duke last year).
Keep in mind that this is before seeing the Tide play a snap, and before I've seen anything from any other SEC teams besides LSU and MSU, but here's what I'm thinking.
Western Carolina: easy win
Vanderbilt: uncomfortably close, but a win
Houston: easy win for Homecoming
Ole Miss: easy win
Mississippi State: close win
LA Monroe: easy win
Arkansas, Georgia, FSU: I think we'll win at least one of these. We should beat Arkansas, but if not, we'll make up for it by upsetting UGA or FSU.
Tennessee, LSU, Auburn: I think we surprise people and win one of these.
So there you go. I just hope fans will remember the cirumstances if we don't look very good against Vandy or actually lose to Vandy or Arkansas. This is a rebuilding year. We should have excitement for the future and not spend too much time dwelling on this season. Just enjoy the beginning of what is hopefully a long and successful Nick Saban era.
I fear I might lose my status as a resident of the state of Alabama if I don't make some comments about Alabama's hiring of Nick Saban today. I will disclaim that I am uninformed, I have no great insight, and I have no unique perspective to add to the discussion.
That being said, from a coaching perspective, I think Saban was clearly a great choice. Whether or not he was the best will always be up for debate, but his college record speaks for itself. No one can really argue against it. He will bring more discipline to the team, both on and off the field (I'm thinking if someone gets pulled over with pot and a gun in their car this summer, they will get more than a one game suspension). He won't let the boosters, the administration, or his assistants second guess him or control him. He is an excellent recruiter, and the excellent facilities we have, coupled with the fact that the on-the-field performance has nowhere to go but up, will bring improvement soon (give him a year or two).
I have the utmost respect for him as a coach, but I must say, he's going to have to win me over in order to like him as a person. When he was at LSU, I saw him as arrogant, and nothing recently has changed that. I don't like the fact that he flat-out lied about his interest in the Alabama job over the last few weeks (visions of Franchione keep coming up). If I were a recruit, I would have a hard time believing his promises.
I also feel like, assuming he has the success at Alabama that everyone expects him to have, every off-season from now on will spent with the fans fearing an announcement that he's leaving to go somewhere else. We're still traumatized from Coach Fran, and the fact that Saban just packed up and left Michigan State, LSU, and now the Dolphins will certainly not give anyone any confidence that he's around for the long term. His name is bound to come up for both NFL jobs and better college jobs. Hopefully, he's tired of moving his family around and this job will stick. Hopefully he'll want to stay, and hopefully we'll want him to stay.
All he has to do is beat Auburn next year, or he'll be gone after one year. :)
Obviously, I quit doing the weekly Alabama football predictions when the season started getting out of control. It just wasn't fun anymore...most any prediction that I would make would involve some sort of big play (a touchdown, an interception, etc), and we just didn't have many this year. I was thinking the other day what a difficult time they're going to have making a highlight video montage of the season. When the highlight of your season is an overtime win against Ole Miss that propelled you into your conference's last bowl tie-in, things are not going well.
That being sad, a few have asked why I have remained so quiet about the Shula firing and the subsequent circus of getting a new coach. The truth is, I really just don't care anymore. It's not that I don't care about Alabama football. I do. It's just that the utter ridiculousness of the program since about the time Gene Stallings retired has worn me thin. Sure, we've had some good years, and plenty of memorable plays. But think of all the downers. We've had all the infractions that led to probation, the Mike Dubose affair, Fran's betrayal, Price's firing before he even coached a game, Shula's many on-field blunders, the mishandling of the Shula firing, the numerous rejections during the coaching search, the Rodriguez debacle...what other program has had so many newsworthy mishaps?
I had said previously that I thought Shula deserved one more year, and although it's tempting to harp on all the problems, I stand by that. I know there's the whole "is the team moving in the right direction" thing, and clearly this season was a step backwards. Not to make excuses, but we were in every single game we played this year. With the exception of Mississippi State, all of our losses were to superior teams. We were within a kick (several times) of beating Arkansas. Shula didn't blow those kicks...would he have been fired for 7-5? Maybe, maybe not. I think change was clearly needed on offense. There are rumors that Shula could have kept his job if he would have been willing to fire assistants...if that's true, you have to either admire his loyalty or regret his stubbornness.
Anyway, now on to the new search. I think the public rejections are definitely not good for the program's image, but I'm not sure that there's anyone to blame there but the media. I honestly have no clue who we'll end up with at this point. I guess we'll all just have to wait and see. Hopefully, they'll find someone who's a good coach, runs a clean program, and most importantly, wants to be at Alabama and wants to stay there. I want someone who will want to stay and who will be allowed to stay for a long time.
Well, if we hadn't allowed that ridiculous fake punt (I'm not convinced they got the first down) and the 55 yard TD pass right after it, the score would have been 20-13, so I would have just missed each team's score by a field goal.
Not that it makes me feel any better...
A few of you actually noticed that I didn't do any predictions for the Duke game. We have played so inconsistently this season that I figured it was pointless to predict what would happen in that game.
Of course, that fact still applies to us now against Ole Miss. This is a conference game, so I expect us to not be nearly as flat as we came out against Duke, but then again, with Tennessee looming next week and Ole Miss pretty much sucking this year, there's always a risk that we'll overlook them like we did Duke.
All I'm going to predict this week is the score. Alabama over Ole Miss, 17-10.
Well, if you only count the first half, most all of my predictions were correct. It's frustrating because once again, we gained more yards than the other team and outplayed them for a lot of the game, but still lost.
I don't care what anyone says, that touchdown that the reply officials failed to negate was not a touchdown. He did not have possession when he broke the plane. It was a fumble out of the endzone, which would be a touchback and our ball. I'm also not entirely convinced that they had possession on that interception that they then fumbled. Both plays were turning points in the game (along with the dropped interception we should have had). If any of those plays go the other way, we might have won.
Like last year, for most of the game, our defense proved that the Urban Meyer sissy offense is not effective in the SEC. I have also lost whatever respect I might have had for Meyer...I guess I had just assumed that he was not as classless as Spurrier, but then he tried to run up the score at the end of the game. I don't normally root for someone to be injured, but wouldn't it have been a nice lesson to him if Tebow had blown out a knee in the final minute of the game when he was trying to score again? One would have thought he might have learned from the Prothro injury last year (which was MUCH earlier in 4th quarter), but I guess not. Show some respect and take a knee.
The results:
1. Darby had some solid runs and continues to look more and more like himself each game, but by no means was this a breakout game.
2. Another 200+ yard passing game, although I don't think we tried enough deep passes.
3. Florida's offense was completely out of sorts for most of the first half, but then they seemed to figure things out. Leak looked scared to death when we had them backed up in their own endzone. I still cannot believe we let him have a 45 yard run.
4. Bad snap for Florida, returned for a TD. Enough said.
5. It would have really helped us if our offense could score touchdowns against someone other than LA Monroe.
I've had a really hard time deciding what to predict for this game. I started off the week sure that I would be realistic and predict Florida to get their revenge on a down-trodden Alabama team still reeling from last week's loss.
But I'm not going to.
Sure, Alabama has owned Florida in Gainsville historically, but that's not why I'm picking the upset.
I'm picking the upset because once again, Florida is over confident. I think they're going to be too busy figuring out how badly they're going to get their revenge on Bama to actually do it.
The specifics:
1. This won't be the game where Darby finally breaks out.
2. Bama's passing game will have a lot of success, like last year.
3. Florida will be frustrated by Alabama's defense. Not to the extent that it was last year, but let's face it...they may have more experience in Urban's offense, but it's basically the same players and I'm still not convinced that it's going to cut it against quality SEC defenses.
4. Bama makes a big play early in the game to set the tone, causing Florida to start seeing a repeat of last year.
5. Bama pulls off the big upset, 24-21.
I'm still not in the mood to talk about this game. It made me miserable all weekend. We outplayed Arkansas and lost the game. I'm not going to rehash what tons of other people have said.
Let's see how I did:
1. I definitely got this one right. Mustain was absolutely terrible at times, and we got three picks.
2. That's it. I'm not going to predict good rushing days for us any more.
3. He got 113.
4. The offenses faired better than I thought they would.
5. Well, if you only look a regulation, I had our score right and almost had theirs right.
Okay, that's it. I'm done with this game now. I don't want to discuss it or think about it anymore.
This is the game that was expected to be Alabama's first real test. Of course, as it turned out, Hawaii and Vandy were both pretty close.
My predictions:
1. Arkansas's true freshman quarterback will make mistakes and get frustrated against the Alabama defense. Unless they just don't throw the ball and go exclusively with the run, I'm looking for two interceptions.
2. Alabama will rush for at least 200 yards, although who gets what amount of yards is up for grabs.
3. McFadden will be held under 100 yards.
4. The game will be a defensive struggle with a lot of hard hits and few points.
5. Alabama wins 17-14.
Finally, Bama figured out how to score points. We gave up too many rushing yards in the first half, particularly on their touchdown drive, but other than that I feel pretty good about the game. We actually covered the spread, which seems pretty unusual for Alabama.
The results of my predictions:
1. The running game definitely established itself, albeit against an inferior opponent. Darby didn't have the 150 yard game I was hoping for, but he's been getting better each week. Upchurch showed some nice moves in mop-up duty. A total of 9 Alabama players carried the ball.
2. Okay, LA-Monroe really only had one substantial drive, the one they scored on. Take that away and the game would have been complete domination.
3. We still passed a lot, and had good success...can't complain about 2 TD's.
4. I think everybody who has any shot of playing this season and possibly next season played in this game. Shula was going to put me in on the last drive, but decided not to.
5. Once again, I was close, but not quite. If we hadn't scored that last TD, it would have been 34-7.
Here are my predictions for the game:
1. Okay, seriously, this is the last time...Alabama's running game WILL establish itself in this game. We'll have three rushing touchdowns, although at this point it's hard to say who will have them.
2. LA-Monroe will put together a couple of good drives, and score some points.
3. Alabama will pass less than the previous games, due to the aforementioned emergence of the running game.
4. The backups will finally get to see the field, as the starters get to take most of the 4th quarter off.
5. Bama finally has a convincing win, 34-10.
Well, the important thing is that we won. The game was fairly lousy, and I was fairly sick, but at least the stadium looks great!
I refuse to give up on this team because of the first two games. They weren't pretty, but we won. Alabama's always (well, in my lifetime at least) had a habit of letting just about all teams keep it close. We just don't generally do blowouts. Besides, if we if take away the two red zone fumbles and replace those with the touchdowns we would have likely gotten, you have 27-10 and no one's complaining.
Now for the results of my predictions:
1. Nope. 159 rushing yards just doesn't cut it. Darby did start to show some hope, but the ground game still hasn't really shown up this season.
2. I nailed this one. Brown dropped an easy one, but still had a 29 yard catch, while Hall had a 31 yarder.
3. This one's iffy. They only gained 93 yards on the ground, but did have a little bit of success a few times, including a 24 yard run, although I don't remember if that was off an option or not.
4. But of course, good ole Bill was up at the BCM before the game.
5. Once again, I got our opponent's score right but over-estimated ours. Take away the fumbles and I would have been much closer...
I forgot to mention last week that my current season prediction is 9-3. In our games that we will definitely be underdogs in (Florida, Tennessee, LSU, and Auburn), I say we pull off one of those. Here's hoping it's Tennessee.
This is not to say that Vandy, Arkansas, Ole Miss, or Mississippi State are locks, but hopefully we will take care of business. I don't see any of the remaining non-conference games being a problem.
Now for the predications for the week against Vandy:
1. Bama's rushing game, particularly Darby, will establish itself after a disappointing debut.
2. Keith Brown and DJ Hall will each have long receptions, although Brown will have a drop or two from being too confident after a great game last week.
3. Vandy's option attack will have some success against our defense. The shovel passes last week don't give me much confidence in our ability to adjust.
4. We will see Bill Keith at some point on Saturday.
5. Alabama will win 24-10.
Let's see how I did last week...
1. Neither offense had a great first half, but it might be a stretch to say that they struggled. Both got points on their first drive.
2. 36 rushes to 29 passes. Not a lot, but still more.
3. Definitely true.
4. I was wrong.
5. COMPLETELY wrong here.
6. Who's your daddy?
7. Bama got three sacks, but Gilberry did not.
8. Shockingly, I was wrong. They may have shown it at some point (I wasn't there, but they did show the opening video on the PPV broadcast and the catch was not there.
9. Again, I wasn't there, but by all accounts, this was true.
10. If either of Bama's two touchdowns that were reversed on instant reply had held, the final would have been 32-17 and I would have been off by just a point. As it is, I was on the money for Hawaii and missed Bama by six points.
Okay, so apparently I should not quit my day job.
No one in this world has any business making score predictions for football games. They are almost never correct, and often aren't even close. No matter how much football knowledge someone has, no matter how much research someone does on the two teams, there is simply no way to predict what is going to happen during any given game.
But since lots of people earn a living making wildly inaccurate predictions, I figure I might as well get in on the action. So I present to you one guy who has no qualifications to talk about football. But seriously....my guesses can't be much further off than half of the sportswriters' guesses.
Here's what I expect to see in tomorrow's game:
1. Both offenses will struggle early on. Duh, it's the first game.
2. Alabama will run a lot more than it will pass. Duh, it's Alabama.
3. Alabama's defense will give up a couple of big plays to Hawaii, but for the most part contain the pass-wackyiness. Duh, it's Alabama.
4. Hawaii's backup QB will see some action in the game. Their starter can only get knocked down so many times.
5. Kenneth Darby will score at least two touchdowns.
6. Keith Brown will catch a long pass, probably for a touchdown.
7. Wallace Gilberry will get a sack.
8. Prothro's catch from last year will find its way into the opening video montage.
9. Bryant-Denny will be loud. Very loud.
10. Alabama will win 31-17.